What will I learn?

Experts will discuss the implications of these measures on various sectors, including businesses, individuals, and public services.

Our webinars are free to attend and are highly recommended to stay on top of crucial and hot topics within this respective industry.

What to expect:

• Overview of the budget highlights
• Analysis of tax reforms and their impact
• Spending allocations across different sectors
• Economic outlook and growth projections
• Q&A session to address audience queries

Paul Robbins's Director of Tax, Content and Consultancy, Autumn Budget 2025 predictions:

There is general expectation that the Budget on 26^th November 2025 will be a tax-raising one with the amounts needed being substantial. The state of the public finances plus the need to meet additional spending on defence, the NHS and a largely unreformed welfare system make it so.

In the run up to a Budget, I sometimes have to scramble around for potential changes to cover. This year it is more a case of what to leave out. Nothing is apparently off the table. Not even those potential tax rises ruled out in the Labour party’s manifesto. As my colleague Glyn Fullelove said in a recent webinar – ‘almost anything is possible’.

Many are now saying that the amounts needed mean that, despite the manifesto, at least one of the big 3 – income tax, National Insurance contributions and value added tax - is going to be brought into play. 

A rise in VAT is inflationary and so likely to be discounted.  Looking at income tax, an alternative to raising rates would be to extend the period for which the thresholds are frozen. That may help in the long term but may not be enough on its own.

Another suggestion from the influential Resolution Foundation, intended to ensure tax increases are targeted on non-workers, would be to increase income tax rates and make a corresponding reduction to NIC employee rates. The narrower net for NIC meaning that workers would be less affected overall.

Other ideas focus on broadening that NIC net to include:

• older workers;
• rental income; and
• partnerships.

There has been a lot of talk about a wealth tax and/or a mansion tax. For all its political power I think concerns about the impact on wealth generation will rule the former out.

The latter is more likely but possibly the capping of principal private residence relief will find greater favour with the Chancellor.

Some further moves to align income tax and capital gains tax rates seem a very strong candidate to raise revenue.

Inheritance tax is another area attracting attention. Possibilities here are the restriction, reduction or abolition of the residence nil rate band, further extending the freeze on thresholds and/or looking again at the way estates can be reduced by means of lifetime gifts.  

The recent changes to agricultural property relief and business property relief may be revisited. A recent report ‘The impact of changes to inheritance tax on farm estates’ from CenTax suggested that if APR relief were to be restricted to the first £10 million of a claim that would fund increasing the combined allowance for 100% relief to £2million per estate.  This has received a lot of support, although Dame Angela Eagle, Minister of State at DEFRA seemed to rule out any amendments to the changes in a recent appearance on the BBC’s ‘Farming Today’.

Another idea impacting individuals about which there have been the hints of Government interest is reducing the cash ISA annual limit to £10,000. However, evidence appears to suggest that this would not necessarily lead, as the government might hope, to increase funds for stocks and shares ISAs.

As regards businesses, the Chancellor’s Corporate Tax Roadmap of October 2024 made great play of providing a settled tax regime for companies, so significant change is unlikely. There may, of course, be further anti-avoidance measures.

Fuel duty has now been frozen for over a decade, with a temporary 5p per litre cut still in place. Maybe this is an unpopular but non-manifesto breaking nettle that needs to be grasped. 

A reforming Chancellor?

In the same webinar mentioned above, Glyn suggested that the difficult circumstances she finds herself in may persuade the Chancellor to tackle some of the big, long-term, structural problems that those working in it know exist within our tax system.

Smuggling revenue raising via reform may be appealing. If nothing else it would be something she could dine out on when, as many believe, she returns to the back benches.

Maybe she will address:

• the differences between income tax and capital gains tax rates;
• the mushrooming of tax reliefs – and VAT exemptions;
• the alignment of income tax and NICs;
• the reform of local taxation; and
• the taxation of employment/self-employment.

It won’t have escaped her notice that with income tax thresholds frozen, and generous rises in the state pension, it won’t be long before tax is due from state pensioners. Surely something the government would be keen to avoid – or a necessity with our aging population?